Volume 18, No. 1, 2020
Christopher Polk, Mo Haghbin and Alessio de Longis
Factor cyclicality can be understood in the context of factor sensitivity to aggregate cash-flow news. Factors exhibit different sensitivities to macroeconomic risk, and this heterogeneity can be exploited to motivate dynamic rotation strategies among established factors: size, value, quality, low volatility and momentum. A timely and realistic identification of business cycle regimes, using leading economic indicators and global risk appetite, can be used to construct long-only factor rotation strategies with information ratios nearly 70% higher than static multifactor strategies. Results are statistically and economically significant across regions and market segments, also after accounting for transaction costs, capacity and turnover.