Hello, Login
X

Forgot Password?

Join Us

to start. Not a member? Join Today!
LinkedIn Join us on
Investment Management Information
“Bridging the theory & practice of investment management”
Email
Advanced Search →
  • Home
  • Journal
    • About
    • Subscribe to the Journal
      • Subscriptions
      • Library Subscriptions
    • Harry M. Markowitz Award
    • Submit a Paper
      • Article Guidelines
      • Practitioner’s Guidelines
    • Reprints & Permissions
    • Advertising
  • Conferences
    • JOIM Conference Events
    • About
    • Membership
    • Board Members
    • Sponsorship
  • Library Access
  • Contact
  • Help

0 comments / 19/02/2015 /

REDUCED FORM VS. STRUCTURAL MODELS OF CREDIT RISK: A CASE STUDY OF THREE MODELS

Navneet Arora, Jeffrey R. Bohn and Fanlin Zhu

In this paper, we empirically compare two structural models (basic Merton and Vasicek–Kealhofer (VK)) and one reduced-form model (Hull–White (HW)) of credit risk. We propose here that two useful purposes for credit models are default discrimination and relative value analysis. We test the ability of the Merton and VK models to discriminate defaulters from nondefaulters based on default probabilities generated from information in the equity market. We test the ability of the HW model to discriminate defaulters from nondefaulters based on default probabilities generated from information in the bond market. We find the VK and HW models exhibit comparable accuracy ratios as well as substantially outperform the simple Merton model. We also test the ability of each model to predict spreads in the credit default swap (CDS) market as an indication of each model’s  strength as a relative value analysis tool. We find the VK model tends to do the best across the full sample and relative subsamples except for cases where an issuer has many bonds in the market. In this case, the HW model tends to do the best. The empirical evidence will assist market participants in determining which model is most useful based on their “purpose in hand.” On the structural side, a basic Merton model is not good enough; appropriate modifications to the framework make a difference. On the reduced-form side, the quality and quantity of data make a difference; many traded issuers will not be well modeled in this way unless they issue more traded debt. In addition, bond spreads at shorter tenors (less than 2 years) tend to be less correlated with CDS spreads. This makes accurate calibration of the term-structure of credit risk difficult from bond data.

$25.00 – Checkout Checkout Added to cart

Next Article: DECOMPOSING AND MANAGING MULTIVARIATE RISKS: THE CASE OF VARIABLE ANNUITIES

Previous Article: DEFAULT CORRELATION IN REDUCED-FORM MODELS

JOIM

    Library Access

    Subscribe to the Journal
    Submit a Paper
    Harry M. Markowitz Award
    Editorial Board
    Upcoming Conferences

    Edit Profile

Recent Comments

    JOIM

      About the JOIM
    • Library Access
    • Subscribe to the Journal
    • Submit a Paper
    • Editorial Board
    • Harry M. Markowitz Award
    • Reprints & Permissions
    • Advertising
    • Terms and Conditions

    JOIM Conference Series

    • About
    • Upcoming Conferences
    • Membership
    • Board Members
    • Sponsorship Opportunities
    • Terms & Conditions
    Speaker Reimbursement Policy

    Contact

    Journal Of Investment Management (JOIM)
    3658 Mt. Diablo Blvd., Suite 200
    Lafayette, CA 94549
    www.joim.com

    customerservice @ joim.com
    (925) 299-7800

    Copyright 2019 — Journal Of Investment Management design by SEO Web Designers