Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 By Moshe Levy and Richard Roll (Reviewed by Ming Xian) View PDF… Read more
2024
Arbitrage Pricing Theory 50 Years After Black Merton Scholes
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 Robert A. Jarrow In the past 50 years, the Black Merton Scholes option pricing methodology has advanced in three directions: the mathematical foundations, modifying its assumptions, and applications to new derivatives. This lecture reviews the advances with respect to the mathematical foundations and the modifications of its assumptions. The key… Read more
Fooled by the Black Swan
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 Sanjay K. Nawalkha This paper offers a critical analysis of the normative theory of investment decisions as presented in Taleb’s The Black Swan. I find that the relentless pursuit of positive black swans can lead investors to overprice opportunities, potentially triggering financial bubbles and crashes in the medium to long… Read more
Training Machines to Trade Stocks
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 Dilip B. Madan and King Wang Machines are trained to trade stocks by developing an investment policy for stock investment in a Markovian context. Importantly, the investment actions impact just the immediate reward and not the state transitions. The policies are designed to maximize a nonlinear expectation of the undiscounted… Read more
Hedging Barrier Options Using Reinforcement Learning
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 Jacky Chen, Yu Fu, John Hull, Zissis Poulos, Zeyu Wang and Jun Yuan We examine the use of reinforcement learning (RL) to hedge barrier options. We find that, when the hedger’s objective is to minimize value at risk or conditional value at risk, RL is an attractive alternative to traditional… Read more
Black–Merton–Scholes Option Pricing: A 50-Year Celebration—Looking Ahead
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 George M. Constantinides It is a great honor to be invited to participate and contribute to the 50-year celebration of the path breaking option pricing theory of Fischer Black, Robert Merton, and Myron Scholes (Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973)). My focus is on financial intermediation and looking ahead… Read more
Keynote Address by Nobel Laureate Myron S. Scholes Fall 2023 UMass Amherst CISDM Conference on: Black–Merton–Scholes Option Pricing: A 50-year Celebration and Looking Ahead
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 Myron S. Scholes View PDF… Read more
Introduction
Vol. 22, No. 4, 2024 Douglas Breeden, John Hull and Sanjay Nawalkha We are delighted to present the second special issue of the Journal of Investment Management, commemorating the 50th anniversary of the revolutionary Black-Merton-Scholes (BMS) option pricing model. This edition builds upon the themes of our first special issue, which featured Robert Merton’s keynote… Read more
Book Review – The Puzzle of Sustainable Investment: What Smart Investors Should Know
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 by Mark Kritzman (Reviewed by Yaoyun Zhang) View PDF… Read more
Forecasting the Distribution of Option Returns
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Leandro Gomes, Roni Israelov and Bryan Kelly We propose a method for constructing conditional option return distributions. In our model, uncertainty about the future option return has two sources: Changes in the position and shape of the implied volatility surface that shift option values (holding moneyness and maturity fixed), and… Read more
The Options-Inferred Equity Premium and the Slippery Slope of the Negative Correlation Condition
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Gurdip Bakshi, John Crosby, Xiaohui Gao, Jinming Xue and Wei Zhou The negative correlation condition (NCC) of Martin (2017) is that covPt (MT RT,RT )≤ 0 for all MT, where MT is the SDF and RT is the gross market return. He employs this assumption to derive a lower bound… Read more
Stock Market Insurance Prices, BL Skew, Conditional Marginal Utilities and the Equity Risk Premium
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Douglas T. Breeden Option prices contain information about implicit state prices. In their recent article, Breeden and Litzenberger (B-L, 2022) demonstrated how option pricesin bond marketsfrom interest rate cap and floor price data can be used to identify the impacts of central bank policies on the distribution of state prices… Read more
Equivalent Expectation Measures for Risk and Return Analysis of Contingent Claims
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Sanjay K. Nawalkha and Xiaoyang Zhuo Nearly half-a-century after the advent of equivalent martingale measures (EMMs), Nawalkha and Zhuo (2022, 2023) generalize these measures to obtain equivalent expectation measures (EEMs) for analyzing risk and return of portfolios of contingent claims over a finite horizon date. The new measures allow the… Read more
About Fischer Black
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Emanuel Derman This speech is based on the chapter about Fischer Black in my 2004 book My Life as a Quant. View PDF… Read more
Retirement Security Bonds
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Robert C. Merton 50th Anniversary Speech by Nobel Laureate Robert C. Merton December 1, 2023 CISDM, UMass Amherst View PDF… Read more
Introduction
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 Douglas Breeden, John Hull and Sanjay Nawalkha View PDF… Read more
Letter from the Editor
Vol. 22, No. 3, 2024 View PDF… Read more
Optimal Portfolio Choice with Absorbing Markov Chains: Application to Markets that May Potentially Decouple
Vol. 22, No. 2, 2024 by Andrew Ang, Henry Shen, Jeff Shen and Rui Zhao We develop a model of optimal asset allocation with a market that has the potential to decouple. There are three Markov regimes: a regime where the market remains fully investable, a second regime where the market may become potentially decouple… Read more
Extreme Weather and Retirement Savings
Vol. 22, No. 2, 2024 by Ted Daverman, Joshua Kazdin, Michael Pensky and Fiona Sloof In this paper, we discuss the impact of extreme weather on US families with a specific focus on household finances. We first derive a life-cycle model of consumption, then introduce climate change-oriented consumption shocks as an additional expense which is… Read more
Night Moves: Is the Overnight Drift the Grandmother of all Market Anomalies?
Vol. 22, No. 2, 2024 by Victor Haghani, Vladimir Ragulin and Richard Dewey Our research in single name stocks suggests that retail trading likely explains the phenomenon of outsized overnight returns at both the level of the overall stock market, and that of individual stocks. We find that the effect exists at the index level… Read more