Articles

Vol. 20, No. 1, 2022 by Soohun Kim, Robert A. Korajczyk and Andreas Neuhierl We propose new methodology to construct arbitrage portfolios by utilizing information contained in firm characteristics for both abnormal returns and betas (and, therefore, smart-beta risk premiums). Our methodology gives maximal weight to risk-based interpretations of characteristics’ predictive power before any attribution… Read more

Vol. 20, No. 1, 2022 by Megan Czasonis, Mark Kritzman and David Turkington The authors describe a new statistical method for improving forecasting called relevance. They describe their new method from both a conceptual and mathematical perspective, and they show how relevance links regressions to event studies and machine learning algorithms… Read more

Vol. 19, No. 4, 2021 Vineer Bhansali and Jeremie Holdom Option prices theoretically encapsulate participants’ expectations about good state (bullish) and bad state (bearish) market outcomes. By using a mixture of distributions and reasonable assumptions, the authors extract time series of expected returns, volatilities, and mixture probabilities of these outcomes surrounding the current US elections… Read more

Vol. 19, No. 4, 2021 Antti Ilmanen, Ronen Israel, Rachel Lee, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Ashwin Thapar Evaluating how factor premia vary over time and across asset classes is challenging due to limited time series data, especially outside of US equities. We examine four prominent factors across six asset classes over a century. We find… Read more

Vol. 19, No. 4, 2021 J. Benson Durham Narrowing at the front but not the long end of the yield curve, notably in both expected rates and term premiums, forecasts lower mean real GDP growth and widens the distribution. But despite undue emphasis among some practitioners and the popular press on outright inversion and recession… Read more

Vol. 19, No. 4, 2021 Peter Easton, Stephannie Larocque and Jennifer Sustersic Stevens We examine the effect of ASC 820 (formerly SFAS 157) on valuations reported by US private equity funds to their investors. In 2008, the FASB implemented ASC 820 to achieve more consistent measurement and increased transparency in fair value reporting. This new… Read more

Vol. 19, No. 2, 2021 Yoram Kroll and Moshe Ben-Horin This paper presents a portfolio performance measure that accounts for the investment horizon assuming both risk and loss aversion as suggested by Tversky and Kahneman’s CPT framework. The optimal portfolio risk premiums of such investors decrease with the length of the investment horizon and our… Read more