Vol. 22, No. 1, 2024 Bob Korkie and H. J. Turtle We consider the impact of low volatility assets on the investment opportunity set (IOS) and resultant asset pricing. The limiting IOS and its finite investable proxy imply an asset pricing model that differs from standard asset pricing models. The Sharpe (1964)–Lintner (1965) CAPM with… Read more
Articles
Realativity in Finance: Goals and Risk-Based Asset Pricing for Investors with Multiple Stochastic Goals and Agents
Vol. 21, No. 4, 2023 Arun Muralidhar This asset pricing model incorporates four positive realities of investing; that investors have many stochastic goals, seek to delegate to skillful agents, explicitly specify risk budgets, and maximize risk-adjusted relative returns. As a result, it also incorporates the relative nature of investing—“Realativity”. Critical to investment practice, it provides… Read more
The Diminishing Role of Active Mutual Funds: Flows and Returns
Vol. 21, No. 4, 2023 James X. Xiong, Thomas M. Idzorek and Roger G. Ibbotson U.S. active equity mutual funds have experienced net outflows since around 2006. The AUM-weighted performance remains similar over time, but equal-weighted performance (which emphasizes small AUM active funds) has deteriorated. Inflows/outflows contribute to the over/underperformance of individual active funds. We… Read more
Reimagining Index Funds
Vol. 21, No. 4, 2023 Rob Arnott, Chris Brightman, Xi Liu and Que Nguyen “Gold-standard” cap-weighted indices have a buy-high and sell-lowdynamic that causes a structural long-term performance drag. Of course,relative to itself, no index can underperform, which is the reason it goes unnoticed. If we use a company’s fundamentals to choose stocks—and then cap-weights… Read more
The Determinants of Inflation
Vol. 21, No. 3, 2023 William Kinlaw, Mark Kritzman, Michael Metcalfe and David Turkington The authors apply a Hidden Markov Model to identify regimes of shifting inflation and then employ an attribution technique based on the Mahalanobis distance to identify the economic variables that dynamically determine the trajectory of inflation. Their analysis enables policymakers to… Read more
Asset Allocation with Non-Pecuniary ESG Preferences: Efficiently Blending Value with Values
Vol. 21, No. 3, 2023 Douglas M. Grim, Giulio Renzi-Ricci and Anna Madamba The explosion of interest in ESG investing has yielded several quantitative frameworks that seek to incorporate non-pecuniary ESG preferences into conventional multi-asset portfolio optimization models. In this article, the authors specify an accessible approach that allows investors to simultaneously optimize for both… Read more
Efficient Goal Probabilities: A New Frontier
Vol. 21, No. 3, 2023 Sanjiv Das, Daniel Ostrov, Anand Radhakrishnan and Deep Srivastav In goals-based wealth management (GBWM), an investor looks to maximize the probabilities of attaining each of n goals over time. Because the goals are in competition for potentially limited financial resources, their relative importance must be specified, which we do by… Read more
Are 60/40 Portfolio Returns Predictable?
Vol. 21, No. 3, 2023 Jamil Baz, Steve Sapra and German Ramirez Long-horizon asset class returns are reasonably predictable using simple models of expected return. However, equity returns over the last decade far exceeded model-based predictions. We posit a framework for the drivers of potential mean-reversion in equity returns. We believe increases in real bond… Read more
Trading with the Informed and Against the Uninformed: Flows and Positioning in the Global Currency Market
Vol. 21, No 2, 2023 by Aldo Barrios, Rob Franolic, Davide Giovanardi and Michael Melvin FX trade settlement data from CLS provides the most comprehensive view of the opaque market of OTC currency trades. We use the flows of investment funds and non-financial corporates and develop trading signals where the former reflects speculative strategies, while… Read more
Is Index Concentration an Inevitable Consequence of Market-Capitalization Weighting?
Vol. 21, No 2, 2023 by Lisa R. Goldberg, Ananth Madhavan, Harrison Selwitz and Alexander Shkolnik Market-cap-weighted equity indexes are ubiquitous. However, there are growing concerns that such indexes are increasingly concentrated in a few stocks. We ask: Does market-cap weighting inevitably lead to increased concentration overtime? The question of inevitability arises from research that… Read more