Volume 13, No. 2, Second Quarter, 2015 Daniel Mantilla-García We solve the growth-rate optimal multiplier of a portfolio insurance strategy in the general case with a locally risky reserve asset and stochastic state variables. The level of the optimal time-varying multiplier turns out to be lower than the standard constant multiplier of Constant Proportion Portfolio… Read more
Articles
A Structural Macro-Financial Model an Macro-Risk Management
Volume 13, Number 2, Second Quarter 2015 Thomas S. Y. Ho and Sang Bin Lee This paper provides a structural macro-financial model that can be used for the cost and benefit analysis of alternative financial regulatory regimes. The model solves for the optimal financial sector size to the real aggregate asset (household leverage) and to… Read more
Equity Indices’ Returns: Contingent Claims on GDP Stochastic Movements
Volume 13, Number 2, Second Quarter 2015 Thomas S.Y. Ho and Sang Bin Lee This paper proposes an equity index contingent claim model. The model assumes that the equity broad-based market indices’stochastic movements are contingent to macroeconomic risk factors that are derived from Ho et al.’s (HPS, 2012, 2013) and Ho and Lee’s (HL, 2015b… Read more
Price Dynamics and Liquidity of Exchange-Traded Funds
Ananth Madhavan Exchange traded funds (ETFs) have grown substantially in diversity, market significance and size in recent years. As a consequence, there is increased interest by practitioners in the pricing and trading of these investment vehicles. This paper develops a model to examine ETF price discovery and premium dynamics, and estimates the model individually for… Read more
Impact of Credit Markets on Dynamic Stochastic Real Aggregate Production
Volume 13, Number 1, First Quarter 2015 Thomas S. Y. Ho and Sang Bin Lee This paper provides a dynamic stochastic macro-financial model that describes the impact of the credit market on real production risk and provides some empirical evidence of the reasonableness of the model. Our model shows that the uncertain real sector output… Read more
Momentum, Acceleration, and Reversal
Volume 13, Number 1, First Quarter 2015 James X. Xiong and Roger G. Ibbotson This paper studies the impact of accelerated stock price increases on future performance. Accelerated stock price increases are a strong contributor to both poor future performance and a higher probability of reversals. It implies that accelerated growth is not sustainable and… Read more
Investing With Style
Volume 13, Number 1, First Quarter 2015 Clifford S. Asness, Antti Ilmanen, Ronen Israel and Tobias J. Moskowitz Investors are bombarded by a variety of investment strategies from a growing and increasingly complex financial industry, each claiming to improve returns and reduce risk. Amid the clamor, academic research has sifted through the vast landscape and… Read more
OIS Discounting, Interest Rate Derivatives, and the Modeling of Stochastic Interest Rate Spreads
Volume 13, Number 1, First Quarter 2015 John Hull and Alan White Before 2007, derivatives practitioners used a zero curve that was bootstrapped from LIBOR swap rates to provide “risk-free” rates when pricing derivatives. In the last few years, when pricing fully collateralized transactions, practitioners have switched to using a zero curve bootstrapped from overnight… Read more
Reserve Primary: Fools Rush in Where Wise Men Fear to Tread!
Volume 13, Number 1, First Quarter 2015 Ozgur (Ozzy) Akay, Mark D. Griffiths and Drew B. Winters This is a clinical analysis of the demise of the Reserve Primary Fund, the first ever money market fund. Reserve Primary was caught in a perfect storm of its own making when the financial markets went into a… Read more
The Dependence of Upside Capture Ratios and Downside Capture Ratios on the Length of the Measurement Interval, Beta, and Alpha
Robert Ferguson, Danny Meidan and Joel Rentzler Volume 12, Number 4, Fourth Quarter 2014 Upside and downside capture ratios are used to assess the quality of investment managers and investment strategies. We propose a simple theoretical model which predicts that the upside capture ratio is an increasing function of the measurement interval length and that… Read more